Today's early action played out pretty much as forecast in last evening's report.  Moreover, the market's reaction to the Fed meeting announcement was in accordance with the scenario laid out in today's midday report. But that's all in the past now, and the question remains whether today's low will mark the reversal point.  I don't believe so.  

Chart 1 below depicts the price pattern of the S&P.  To me, for this corrective pattern to count as complete, a countertrend bounce, followed by one more down leg, is required.


Chart 1. If the analysis is correct, two more subdivisions are required for the wave structure to count as
complete.

Likewise, the ES appears to sport a similar corrective pattern whose last two subdivisions are yet to come.  Notice the open gap that coincides with the 61.8% retracement. If more downside is in the cards, I think the ES will print 1195 in the next couple of days of trading.


Chart 2. Odds are the corrective decline still has more to go before a bottom is set.
 
With that being said, do NOT use this forecast as a trading plan, especially since I'm not confident it will unfold as described. After all, both the ES and SPX bounced off their respective 50-day moving averages this afternoon, and that might be enough to invite some capital back into equities.  For what it's worth, the NDX and NQ bounced off their 100-day moving averages after falling below their upward-sloping 50-day moving averages.  Technically, this could be setting the stage for a very powerful rally.

It's best we wait for clarity to return on Wednesday before we act.

Trade Well,

Peter